Prop bet #1: T.J. McConnell Over 3.5 assists
As someone who lives in the assists market with my NBA player props, T.J. McConnell is arguably one of my favorite players in the NBA. This line of 3.5 (-106) for the Over on McConnell is too low and honestly downright disrespectful. Give me this price on McConnell, and I'm hitting the button all day.
With the Milwaukee Bucks' defense focused on Tyrese Haliburton, we're seeing the other guards, Andrew Nembhard and McConnell, being able to get in the lane and generate offense at will for the Pacers. In the last two games in this series, which were played without Damian Lillard, Nembhard actually leads Indiana in potential assists at 11.5 compared to 11.3 for Haliburton. The bet is on McConnell because he has a better edge than Nembhard on his total, but I'm just trying to highlight how the potential assists aren't all falling into the lap of Haliburton against the Bucks.
When McConnell is in the game, he's on the ball, very involved, and racking up potential assists in a hurry. The defense is more focused on Haliburton, and the Bucks don't have multiple perimeter defenders who can slow down the playmaking of both players at the same time.
In Game 5, McConnell went Under this total with only three dimes, but he had seven potential assists in only 16 minutes of playing time. Many of the potential assists that weren't converted were to 3-point shooters, and with Game 6 moving back to Indiana on Thursday, we could see these potential assists convert at a higher rate because role players always shoot better at home.
McConnell won't see big minutes; that's not his game, but we don't need high minutes to establish an edge on this number. McConnell is projected to drop 4.5 dimes against the Bucks on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -183, but it is available at FanDuel at -106.
TJ McConnell prop: Over 3.5 assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Donte DiVincenzo Over 1.5 assists
Donte DiVincenzo's minutes in this playoff series against the 76ers are down compared to what we were seeing near the end of the regular season. During the regular season in April, DiVincenzo was playing 39.9 minutes per game, and in this series, he is only averaging 28.6 minutes per game. That's fine because DiVincenzo's assists total has also plummeted with his minutes, and we have an edge on the adjusted total relative to the minutes he is currently seeing.
At the end of the regular season, when the Knicks were playing DiVincenzo 40+ minutes in some games, he was trading with a total of 2.5 with increased juice or 3.5 at plus money. This line is 1.5 (-135) on Thursday, and I think that's way too low relative to his role and minutes in this series.
The projection we're using to establish an edge on this number is 26 minutes for DiVincenzo. So, we have an edge on this number even if his minutes fall on the low end of what we have seen. The thing is, this is Tom Thibodeau we are talking about here. Is it out of the realm of possibility that he just randomly decides to play DiVincenzo for 35 minutes in Game 6 and maybe ride the hot hand? Not at all, as he did play 37 minutes in Game 2.
When you watch the film from Game 5, DiVincenzo was able to drive the ball, get in the lane, and make something happen on several occasions. These plays didn't lead directly to potential assists, but there were several hockey assists, and this total is only 1.5.
The 76ers will also be blitzing Jalen Brunson at every chance they get, so don't be shocked if DiVincenzo finds himself one pass away from Brunson on several occasions to help combat this, which will also open 3-pointers and potential assists for DiVincenzo.
DiVincenzo is projected to have 2.5 assists on Thursday against the 76ers, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -203, but it is available at -135 at bet365.
Donte DiVincenzo prop: Over 1.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
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Prop bet #3: Nicolas Batum Over 1.5 assists
When I was watching the 76ers mount an epic comeback against the Knicks in Game 5, I was already dreaming about the price on Nicolas Batum's assists prop in Game 6 and hoping he didn't go Over the total in overtime and draw attention to this price. Batum finished the game with 1 assist, going Under the number, and the number we're seeing for Thursday's Game 6 did not disappoint at all.
In Game 5, Batum was trading with a total of 1.5 (+160), which caught my eye, but I didn't hit the button. The second I saw Nick Nurse fade Kyle Lowry down the stretch and opt for more minutes from Batum, I knew I was going to be all over this bet in Game 6. The best part about this bet: The sportsbooks added another 20 cents to his price for us because Batum went under in Game 5.
Not only did Nurse give Batum more playing time in the fourth quarter, but Batum played the five minutes in overtime. The idea of playing Batum for more minutes instead of Lowry could also stick because they were using Batum as the primary defender on Brunson. Batum was able to use his length to disrupt some of Brunson's shots, and he had the block in the final seconds at the end of regulation to send it to overtime.
Batum is an unselfish player who sees the floor well and is capable of making the correct read on a play. The 76ers also have plays in their offensive sets designed for Batum to be the passer for the open shot; you saw one of them with a minute left in overtime when he found Kelly Oubre to break the tie.
If you put Batum on the floor for 30+ minutes with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, who can convert his potential assists, there's no way I'm not hitting the button on a 1.5 (+180) for the Over on Batum's assists total.
Batum is projected to have 1.9 assists on Thursday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -122, but it is available at bet365 at +180. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 54%.
Nicolas Batum prop: Over 1.5 assists (+180 at bet365)
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