With seven wins against Power 5 schools this season, the Mountain West has shown it will be a tougher gauntlet for Boise State than most expected.
But what better way for the Broncos to prove they still will be the team to beat than this week’s conference play opener?
On a short week, No. 20 Boise State hosts Air Force on Friday (7 p.m. MT, ESPN2). The Falcons are the only Mountain Division school to beat the Broncos more than once since Boise State joined the conference in 2011. The Falcons’ three-game win streak from 2014 to 2016 was the longest by any school against Boise State in the last 20 years.
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Although the Broncos have won the last two meetings, Air Force week always adds just a little bit of extra stress, compounded this year by one less day to prepare.
“We have a history,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said.
Sure, the option-based offense of Air Force causes some sleepless nights for the defensive coaches, not to mention a few extra minutes in the ice bath for the front seven. But in the five games Harsin has coached against the Falcons, it hasn’t typically been how Boise State has solved the Air Force defense that’s the biggest difference in wins and losses.
Two major situations on offense have been key: third downs and red zone. Simply put, when both are good, the Broncos win. When they’re subpar, the Broncos lose.
Here’s a look at those two stats in Boise State’s games against Air Force under Harsin:
2018 (48-38 win): 7 of 12 on third down, 4 of 4 scoring in the red zone
2017 (44-19 win): 6 of 12 on third down, 6 of 6 scoring in the red zone
2016 (27-20 loss): 1 of 12 on third down, 3 of 4 scoring in the red zone
2015 (37-30 loss): 6 of 20 on third down, 2 of 3 scoring in the red zone
2014 (28-14 loss): 7 of 18 on third down, 2 of 4 scoring in the red zone
Playing against an offense like Air Force, which often will dominate time of possession, there may be fewer opportunities to score, so teams have to make the most of them. Dating back to the Chris Petersen era, Boise State is 4-0 when scoring more than 30 points against the Falcons and 0-3 when it doesn’t.
“Really good players play well on third downs,” Harsin said. “When you get in those money situations, you’ve got to execute. We’ve been able to answer that challenge for the most part.”
Thus far, Boise State has fared well in those key situations: The Broncos are 10th nationally with a 54.9 percent success rate on third-down conversions, and are No. 1 with 28 of them.
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With touchdowns on six of 15 red-zone visits (40 percent, tied for 118th nationally), red zone efficiency is an area of greater concern against the Falcons, who have allowed four scores on six opponent red-zone trips through two games. One of those stops came in Saturday’s 30-23 overtime win at Colorado.
Boise State has ended 12 of its 15 drives inside the 20 with points. The three without any scoring all came Sept. 6 against Marshall: on a kneeldown at the end of the game, a tipped ball that was intercepted and a bad snap that took the drive out of field goal range, leading to a failed fourth down conversion attempt.
“Our red zone efficiency went up (against Portland State),” Harsin said. “Hopefully that continues this week.”
Offensive line settling in?
The Broncos have used three different starting offensive line groups, compiled with eight different players. They’ve allowed 11 sacks and seen true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier take many more hits as he’s getting rid of the ball.
There may be a little bit of stability this week, as Harsin said the starters will be “probably the same” as the combination that started Saturday against Portland State.
Redshirt freshman Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez got his first start at left guard – Harsin said he is “exceptional” as an interior lineman – and redshirt freshman Garrett Curran saw his first career snaps as the starter at right tackle.
With sophom*ore right tackle John Ojukwu still a few weeks away while recovering from a knee injury, the Broncos hope they’ve found the right combination until he returns. Boise State rushed for 150 yards on 31 attempts Saturday, but would like to have an even better showing to keep the Falcons off the field.
“There were times the inexperience of finishing showed up,” Harsin said. “We did that for the most part, but we didn’t do it consistently enough.”
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Taking to the air
Air Force attempted just one pass in its opener against Colgate but completed seven against Colorado, averaging 22.1 yards per completion and scoring on completions of 32 and 81 yards.
Yes, the Falcons usually finish toward the top of the nation in rushing, but Boise State knows all too well the efficiency of their passing attack. In their last meeting, Air Force threw for 242 yards on 11 completions. Plenty of Boise State fans still get nervous remembering the 2015 visit to Boise when the Falcons completed just nine passes … for 279 yards.
Boise State’s cornerbacks have played well, as have the safeties, even while missing junior DeAndre Pierce since early in the opener against Florida State. The Broncos currently rank 70th in pass efficiency defense (129.66).
“The key is when they do put the ball in the air,” Harsin said. “We can’t get sucked down, so to speak, and let them just run free – that’s happened to us before.”
(Photo: Isaiah J. Downing / USA Today)
